CertTrack (working name)

Idea status: Idea stage · Target: an MRR ladder ($1k → $50k by month 24) instead of one fixed number · Verdict: No as described. Go small, only as per-event COI checks for event venues, and only if a day-45 paid test passes. · Last updated: 30 Sept 2026

Start here → WHAT-TO-DO-AND-AVOID.md: odds at each MRR level (with conditions, ~15 hrs/week vs full-time: $1k ~35% / 50%, $5k ~13% / 22%, $10k ~6% / 12%, $20k ~2% / 5%; Tier B ~2% / 4%), customer math, 12 do's, 14 avoids, checkpoints.

Where this idea came from: the 30 Sept 2026 micro-SaaS idea catalog, idea E3: certificate-of-insurance (COI) tracking for vendors, subcontractors and tenants (../_research/2026-09-30-micro-saas-idea-catalog.md). Its evidence was myCOI (~$6.2M ARR in 2024 by Latka's estimate, on $7.3M raised) and Jones ($15M Series B in 2025). The suggested solo wedge was "COI tracking for small property managers inside AppFolio or Buildium, self-serve, under $200/mo". The research contradicted that wedge, so this assessment moves it to event venues. See analysis/01 and research/10.

"CertTrack" is a working name. Check trademark and domain before using it publicly.

Research was run on 30 Sept 2026, with a confidence level on each claim. See research/10-verified-research.md.

Folder layout

certtrack/
├── WHAT-TO-DO-AND-AVOID.md      ← final analysis and decision (read first)
├── README.md                    ← this index
├── analysis/                    ← the investor-style assessment
│   ├── 00-one-page-brief.md
│   ├── 01-verdict.md
│   ├── 02-market-reality-check.md
│   ├── 03-feature-scrutiny.md
│   ├── 04-expanded-feature-catalog.md
│   ├── 05-pre-mortem.md
│   ├── 06-fundability.md
│   ├── 07-gaps.md
│   └── 09-assumptions-and-open-inputs.md
├── plans/                       ← execution plans
│   ├── 08-90-day-plan.md
│   └── 11-24-month-gated-roadmap.md
└── research/                    ← verified, cited evidence
    └── 10-verified-research.md

File numbers match the other ideas in this portfolio, so cross-references like "doc 08" work the same way.

Documents

#	Document	What it answers
—	WHAT-TO-DO-AND-AVOID.md	Final decision: MRR ladder, Tier A/B, founder-only conditions, customer math, 12 do's, 14 avoids, checkpoints
00	analysis/00-one-page-brief.md	The whole assessment on one page
01	analysis/01-verdict.md	MRR ladder for five candidate buyers and both time commitments, base-rate proxies, Tier A/B, fundable yes/no
02	analysis/02-market-reality-check.md	The buyers scored, pain score, competitors and their prices, vitamin vs painkiller, market size
03	analysis/03-feature-scrutiny.md	The idea's stated features classified for the chosen buyer
04	analysis/04-expanded-feature-catalog.md	About 40 features buyers ask for, classified and prioritised
05	analysis/05-pre-mortem.md	Top 3 causes of death, their warning signs, whether each is fixable
06	analysis/06-fundability.md	Would I invest, the skeptic's questions, proof points, bootstrap vs raise
07	analysis/07-gaps.md	Gaps to pay, renew and refer, plus liability, compliance and team
08	plans/08-90-day-plan.md	First 90 days, week by week, for both time commitments
09	analysis/09-assumptions-and-open-inputs.md	Assumptions made, and the inputs that would change the verdict
10	research/10-verified-research.md	Cited research with confidence levels, and what's still unverified
11	plans/11-24-month-gated-roadmap.md	Month 0–24 phases, gates, revenue path, budget guardrails

Caveat

Team, venue or events-industry access, and hours per week available were not provided. The assumptions are in analysis/09. Still unverified:

the venue buyer itself: whether coordinators pay to stop chasing vendor COIs, and at what price (the search budget ran out before this could be checked);
the number of US venues that host private events with outside vendors;
whether venue booking software already collects COIs, or has open APIs;
Jones's $38M total raised, and Latka's myCOI revenue figures;
liability precedent for COI-tracking vendors, and E&O insurance cost.

See research/10.