One-Page Brief
Verdict
No as described. Go small, only as per-event COI checks for event venues, and only if a day-45 paid test passes.
As described (COI tracking for small property managers inside AppFolio or Buildium, self-serve, under $200/mo), the odds of $10k MRR by month 24 are ~2%. The recommended version reaches $10k at ~6% on ~15 hrs/week and ~12% full-time, with the founder conditions met. Tier B ($20k+ MRR, profitable, in 24 months) is ~2% / ~4%. It is not fundable. Every figure is a judgment estimate. See 01.
The five things that matter
- The category is real, and the top end is taken. myCOI built a single-digit-millions business on $7.3M raised (Latka's estimate of $6.2M ARR in 2024 is unreliable). Jones raised a $15M Series B in Jan 2025 and serves 25,039 properties and projects. BCS, TrustLayer, Certificial and Billy fill the rest. Commercial real estate and construction belong to them.
- The bottom end is free. BCS is free up to 25 vendors, then $0.95 per vendor a month. TrustLayer is free up to 50 vendors. Both include AI reading and automated chasing. For a small property manager with 30–60 vendors, "under $200/mo" isn't cheap. It's 3–4x the price of BCS.
- The AppFolio and Buildium route is closed to small customers. AppFolio's API starts at the Plus plan (read-only). Buildium's Open API needs Premium, from $400/mo. An AppFolio Stack listing costs $25–50k a year (secondary source). And AppFolio already stores vendor insurance expiry dates and a "compliant" flag.
- Someone already sells the exact wedge. COI File offers $39 / $89 / $199 plans for property managers and contractors, with AI extraction of ACORD 25 forms, magic-link uploads and renewal emails. It was built by a founder who managed COIs for 150+ properties.
- The one opening is buyers with many one-off vendors. Per-vendor pricing and 25–50-vendor free caps punish a buyer who sees hundreds of different vendors a year. Event venues are that buyer: every wedding brings a caterer, bar, DJ, photographer, florist and rental company, and the check has to hold on the event date. Flat per-venue pricing and an event-shaped workflow are a real gap. But the venue buyer is unverified. The search budget ran out before it could be checked.
Feature sort (headline)
- Table stakes: AI reading of certificates, expiry reminders, a document store, a vendor upload link, a dashboard.
- Differentiators (for venues): event-dated checks, chase schedule tied to the event date, flat per-venue price, vendor profile reused across venues, audit pack per event.
- Distractions: "inside AppFolio or Buildium", a broker channel first, deep ERP integrations, native mobile apps.
- Liabilities: saying "compliant" or "insured", auto-approval with no human, taking insurance commission without a licence, tenant renters-insurance tracking.
Most likely cause of death
Venues don't pay. Coordinators already chase COIs by email, and a missing certificate rarely causes a visible loss. Early warning: fewer than 5 venues pay $49 a month for the hands-on service by day 45.
Next 90 days
Do: call 15 venue coordinators, then run a paid hands-on service for 5 venues by day 45. Build the event-shaped product only after that. Stop: anything that depends on AppFolio or Buildium, and any plan that competes on reading certificates.
Full plan: 08 · Final call: WHAT-TO-DO-AND-AVOID.md