1. Verdict
No as described. Go small, only as per-event COI checks for event venues, and only if a day-45 paid test passes.
Why a ladder instead of one target
This idea is assessed at six MRR levels, not one fixed target. Most small B2B tools stall at a handful of customers, some reach a comfortable monthly figure, and very few break out. A single "$20k MRR" number hides the most useful information: how likely each level is, and what each level costs in hours.
The anchor: there is no verified base rate
No verified base rate exists for bootstrapped B2B micro-SaaS. Nobody publishes "the share of new B2B micro-SaaS products that reach $X MRR within 24 months". The nearest proxies (10):
| Source | What it measures | Figure | Why it doesn't fit |
|---|---|---|---|
| RevenueCat, State of Subscription Apps 2026 | Share of new mobile apps reaching $X/month within 2 years | Business category: 14.7% reach $1k, 1.6% reach $10k | App-store products, not B2B web software |
| ChartMogul, 2025 SaaS Growth Report | Share reaching $1M ARR from first revenue | 13.4% within 3 years | The clock starts later and the bar is far higher |
The odds below are judgment estimates, loosely anchored to these and to the category evidence.
Things that push the odds up:
- The category pays. myCOI (single-digit millions of ARR on $7.3M raised) and Jones ($15M Series B) show businesses buy COI tracking.
- Few customers are needed. At ~$115 a month, $10k MRR is ~87 venues.
- Buyers are findable. Venues publish their vendor policies on their own websites.
Things that push them down:
- The low end is free and funded. BCS (free to 25 vendors) and TrustLayer (free to 50) include AI reading and chasing.
- Reading certificates is a commodity, so the product has to win on workflow alone.
- The chosen buyer is unverified. No venue source was read in this run.
- Venues are seasonal and coordinators have small budgets.
- Liability: a missed lapse followed by an injury claim is this category's worst case.
Odds at each MRR level (reached by month 24)
Five buyers were compared. All non-venue columns assume full-time work.
| MRR at month 24 | Base rate | As described: small property managers inside AppFolio/Buildium | Small commercial landlords (5–50 tenants) | Small GCs and subcontractor COIs | Broker white-label | Event venues, ~15 hrs/week | Event venues, full-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1k | No verified base rate | 25% | 25% | 20% | 20% | 35% | 50% |
| $3k | No verified base rate | 10% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 20% | 32% |
| $5k | No verified base rate | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 13% | 22% |
| $10k | No verified base rate | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 12% |
| $20k | No verified base rate | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% |
| $50k | No verified base rate | <0.5% | <0.5% | <0.5% | <0.5% | <1% | 1% |
Notes on the alternatives:
- Small property managers (as described) face every wall at once: no API on their plans (AppFolio Core, Buildium Essential and Growth), vendor insurance expiry already native in AppFolio, free tiers covering their 25–50 vendors, and COI File selling the exact wedge at $39–199.
- Small commercial landlords have few tenants, so free tiers cover them completely. Lease-specific requirements are a real job, but a rare one (renewals once a year).
- Small GCs are the home turf of Billy (free for subs), Jones, myCOI/illumend and BCS, with Procore integrations.
- Broker white-label is already being worked by illumend (broker programme, Mar 2026) and Certificial (25,000+ agencies claimed).
- Event venues are the only buyer where the incumbents' model (per-vendor pricing, ongoing vendor relationships, free caps at 25–50 vendors) fits badly. That's why they score highest, even though they're unverified.
The recommended version is set out in WHAT-TO-DO-AND-AVOID.md and assumes all four founder-only conditions: venue access, 5 paying venues by day 45, liability rails before launch, and honest hours. Without venue access, multiply by ~0.5. If another condition is missing, multiply by ~0.7.
How to read the ladder
- $1k–3k (9–26 venues) is realistic if the day-45 test passes.
- $5k–10k (44–87 venues) needs the vendor loop (vendors reusing their profile at other venues) and search pages to bring venues without a founder call each.
- $20k (~174 venues) is unlikely in 24 months. It needs a second buyer type (fair and market organisers, event rental companies).
- The columns split most from $5k up. Each venue costs about 2–3 founder hours to sign and set up until onboarding is automated, and wedding season squeezes those hours.
Tier A and Tier B
| Tier | Definition | Venues, ~15 hrs/week | Venues, full-time | As described |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier A (venture) | $1M ARR within 36 months, ≥70% gross margin, ≥50% month-12 logo retention | <0.5% | ~1% | <0.5% |
| Tier B (profitable business) | $20k+ MRR within 24 months, profitable, ≥80% gross margin, ≥70% month-3 retention | ~2% | ~4% | <1% |
Fundable in current form?
No. The funded end of the category (Jones, myCOI) sells to commercial real estate and construction with ERP integrations. A solo venue tool is a small-business wedge with a ceiling of a few hundred venues in 24 months. See 06.
One-paragraph verdict
COI tracking is a proven, boring category, and that's exactly the problem for a solo founder in 2026. Reading certificates is free inside BCS and TrustLayer. The small-property-manager wedge in the catalog is blocked three ways: no API on the plans those managers use, the basic job already built into AppFolio, and an indie tool already selling it at $39–199. The one structural gap the evidence shows is pricing and workflow for buyers who see hundreds of one-off vendors a year and think in events, not vendor relationships. Event venues fit that shape. But no one has yet confirmed that venue coordinators will pay to stop chasing certificates. So this is a small, conditional go: spend 45 days and no product code finding 5 venues that pay for the hands-on version. If they don't appear, stop, and don't fall back to property managers.