9. Assumptions and Open Inputs
The brief gave the idea, its evidence and a suggested wedge. It did not give team, industry access, geography, stage or hours. Here's what I assumed, and how the verdict changes if each assumption is wrong.
9.1 Assumptions made
| Input | Assumption used | If actually different… |
|---|---|---|
| Target customer | US event venues that allow outside vendors, 50–300 events a year | If the founder has deep property-management access and a list of Plus/Max AppFolio or Premium Buildium customers, the as-described wedge improves a little, but free tiers and native fields still cap it. If the founder has construction access, the odds don't improve: that end is funded and crowded. |
| Venue pain and volume | Hundreds of one-off vendors a year, chasing felt weekly in season | Unverified. If venues see only 1–2 outside vendors per event, or use an in-house preferred list, the wedge collapses to the free-tier case. |
| Pricing | ~$115/month blended: $79 / $149 / $349 | If venues won't pay more than ~$49, $10k MRR needs ~200 venues and the ladder roughly halves above $3k. |
| Geography | US, starting in 2 states | Other countries use different certificate formats. The UK and EU largely don't use ACORD 25. Start in one country. |
| Stage | Idea. No code, no users, no revenue | Any paying venue changes the conversation from "idea" to "evidence". |
| Team | 1 technical founder, no stated events-industry background | A founder who has run a venue or coordinated weddings is the single biggest positive change (condition 1 in WHAT-TO-DO-AND-AVOID.md). |
| Hours per week available | Two plans: ~15 hrs/week, and full-time | The two ladder columns are different plans. At under ~10 hrs/week, wedding-season support alone makes this hard. |
| Competitor figures | Public pages, 30 Sept 2026 | Re-check BCS, TrustLayer and COI File pricing before launch. Any "event mode" launch by them changes the verdict. |
| Latka figures for myCOI | Rough size only | If myCOI's real ARR is far lower, the category proof weakens. It doesn't change the solo wedge. |
| Liability exposure | Manageable with wording, human confirmation, terms and E&O | If a lawyer says a document-check tool carries meaningful exposure regardless, the whole category may be wrong for a solo founder. |
9.2 Inputs that would change the verdict most (please supply)
- Venue or events-industry access: who can you get on the phone in 30 days?
- Hours per week available, and how many of them fall in US business hours.
- Results of the first 15 coordinator calls: vendors per event, how they collect today, the last time a certificate was missing.
- Booking software used by those venues, and whether it already collects vendor COIs.
- A lawyer's view on liability wording and insurance-referral licensing.
- An E&O insurance quote for a document-check SaaS.
- Launch region, and why.
9.3 Definitions used throughout
- COI: certificate of insurance, usually an ACORD 25 form in the US. It summarises a policy. It is not the policy.
- Additional insured (AI): a party added to a policy by endorsement. The certificate can only indicate it.
- Waiver of subrogation: the insurer gives up its right to recover from the certificate holder. Also granted by endorsement.
- Venue: a business renting space for weddings and private events that allows outside vendors (caterers, bars, DJs, photographers, florists, rental companies).
- Tier A / Tier B: portfolio definitions in ../../README.md.
- Paid churn benchmarks: SMB B2B SaaS commonly 3–5% a month (portfolio benchmark, not re-verified here).