9. Assumptions and Open Inputs
The brief gave the concept, the example wedges (GPSR, Prop 65-style warnings, B2B/wholesale/customs documents) and the first buyers (Shopify merchants selling into the EU). It didn't give team, hours per week, geography, pricing, stage or traction. Here's what I assumed, and how the verdict changes if each assumption is wrong.
9.1 Assumptions made
| Input | Assumption used | If actually different… |
|---|---|---|
| Stage | Idea. No code, no users, no revenue. | With a live app and install data, the cohort numbers would outweigh most of this document. Send them. |
| Hours per week available | Two cases: ~15 hrs/week and full-time | Under ~10 hrs/week, the 24-hour support promise breaks, and so do the reviews. Cut the $3k+ odds by about half. |
| Team | 1 person, technical, no stated Shopify app experience, no German | Prior Shopify app experience is the biggest single positive change: it cuts 4–6 weeks from v1 and makes Built for Shopify realistic by month 6. German fluency is the second. |
| Geography of the founder | Anywhere. The work is remote, and billing goes through Shopify. | No change to the product. Support hours should overlap with CET. |
| Target merchants | Multi-brand EU retailers, German-speaking first | English-only: install odds fall in the category's richest market. Cut the $5k+ odds by about a third. |
| Pricing | Free / $19 / $49 / $99, blended ~$30 after annual discounts (07) | If the blend falls to the $12–15 category norm, every MRR level needs twice the merchants. $10k becomes ~700 paying. |
| Install-to-paid | ~15–20% of installs become paying at some point (the free plan is the gap scan) | Unverified. At 8%, you need about twice the installs, and $10k by month 24 needs ~150 installs a month. |
| Paid churn | ~4–5% a month for multi-brand retailers on the recommended product | Unverified. At 8%, the business plateaus around $5–6k MRR at realistic install volumes (05). |
| Segment size | Multi-brand EU retailers with 200+ SKUs on Shopify: 15,000–50,000 stores | Unverified, and the biggest open input. If it's under 10,000, the $10k+ odds halve. |
| Regulation dates | GPSR applies from 13 Dec 2024 (verified). Withdrawal button from 19 June 2026 (verified). GARAN label from 27 Sept 2026 (unverified). E-invoicing and EUDR dates unverified. | The deadline calendar (11) depends on these. Verify each before building for it. |
| Shopify economics | 0% revenue share on the first $1M lifetime (not yearly), 15% above, 2.9% processing fee, $19 one-time registration (all verified) | No effect within 24 months. |
| Competitor data | App Store listings on 30 Sept 2026 | Review counts move weekly. Re-check GCM, Complimus, Alnage and Suite Pro monthly. |
| Name | "StoreComply" is a working name | Trademark and domain not checked. It's close to "ShopCompliance", "simpleComply" (both delisted) and "Complimus". Pick something distinctive and searchable in German too. |
9.2 Inputs that would change the verdict most (please supply)
- Hours per week available, and for how many months.
- Shopify app experience. Have you shipped an app, a theme or a store? Any Partner account history?
- Languages. Do you, or someone you can pay, speak German (and French or Dutch)?
- Access to multi-brand EU retailers. Can you name 20 you could contact this month?
- Any tie to an EU responsible-person service or product-compliance consultant.
- Budget for a part-time German support contractor, and professional indemnity insurance.
- Why this idea. Compliance apps are dull and support-heavy. Founders who want a "cool" product tend to drift into features no merchant asked for.
9.3 Definitions used throughout
- Tier A: $1M ARR within 36 months, ≥70% gross margin, ≥50% month-12 logo retention.
- Tier B: $20k+ MRR within 24 months, profitable, ≥80% gross margin, ≥70% month-3 retention.
- MRR: monthly recurring subscription revenue billed through Shopify, before the 2.9% processing fee. One-off concierge fees are excluded.
- Multi-brand retailer: a Shopify store selling products from 10+ third-party brands, with 200+ SKUs.
- Paying merchant: a store on any paid plan.
- Activation: gap scan run and at least 1 brand profile assigned within 7 days of install.
- Built for Shopify (BFS): Shopify's quality badge. Its requirements are listed in research/10, R2.