11. 24-Month Gated Roadmap
Target: an MRR ladder, not one number. The plan's base case is $8k MRR by month 24 at ~15 hrs/week, and $12k full-time. Both are profitable at a gross margin above 90%, with ≥70% month-3 retention. $20k (Tier B) needs a second product. See "What each MRR level takes" below. Rule: nothing in a later phase starts until the current phase's gate is hit. Gates and pivot rules are in WHAT-TO-DO-AND-AVOID.md. The detail for days 1–90 is in 08-90-day-plan.md.
Phase 1: Prove the pain and list the app (Months 0–3) → Gates G1 (day 45), G2 (day 90)
| Track | Work |
|---|---|
| Customers | 20 discovery calls with multi-brand EU retailers. 5–8 paid concierge catalogue fills (€149–299). |
| Product | v1 to Built for Shopify standards: gap scan (free), brand profiles, vendor rules, supplier request portal, storefront block (theme app extension), warnings library, CSV, Billing API, GDPR webhooks. |
| Distribution | App Store listing in English and German. Keyword set: GPSR, Produktsicherheit, Herstellerangaben, EU responsible person. |
| Team | A part-time German-speaking helper for listing copy and support templates (paid per hour). |
| Pricing | Free / Starter $19 / Growth $49 / Scale $99. Pilots get Growth at $29, locked for 12 months. |
| Exit | G1: 5+ paid pilots, 3+ willing to pay monthly. G2: listed, 30+ installs, 8+ paying, 3+ reviews. |
Phase 2: Earn the badge (Months 4–6) → Gate G3
| Track | Work |
|---|---|
| Product | Weekly gap email (new SKUs missing data, suppliers who haven't replied). Compliance evidence PDF. Auto-downgrade to Free instead of uninstall. |
| Distribution | Review asks at the "100% complete" moment. Onboarding call for every Growth merchant. Apply for Built for Shopify as soon as there are 50 net paid installs and 5 reviews. |
| Data | Install source, activation, supplier-request completion, uninstall reasons. |
| Research | Verify the dates for EUDR, the Digital Product Passport, GARAN and national e-invoicing. Build the deadline calendar from primary sources. |
| Exit | $1k MRR, Built for Shopify applied or granted, 10+ reviews, ≥70% month-3 paid retention |
Phase 3: Widen the moat, not the scope (Months 7–12) → Gate G4
| Track | Work |
|---|---|
| Product | Marketplace-ready exports (formats verified first). GARAN guarantee notice module. Multi-store and Shopify Flow triggers on the Scale plan. Safety Gate recall matching (weekly). |
| Distribution | Dutch and French listings. Partner programme for EU responsible-person services, compliance consultants and DACH Shopify agencies (partner dashboard, referral share). One content page per regulation and product category. |
| Data | Brand profiles: when a brand completes a supplier request, ask it (with consent) to keep a reusable profile. Target 300+ brand profiles. |
| Ops | Help centre from the top 50 tickets. 24-hour first-response promise kept ≥95% of the time. |
| Exit | $3k MRR, paid churn ≤5%/month, 25+ reviews, BFS badge held |
Phase 4: Catch a wave, then decide the next step (Months 13–24) → Gate G5
| Track | Work |
|---|---|
| Product | One-click brand profiles (a retailer pulls a brand's verified data instantly): the network effect. A module for the next verified EU deadline, live 3–6 months before it applies. Omnibus only if customers ask. |
| Distribution | Double down on the single best source from months 1–12 (search, partners or deadline content). Italian and Spanish listings if the data supports them. |
| Team | At ~$4k MRR: a paid part-time support person (German/English), so the founder's hours go to product and partners. |
| Checkpoint | Month 18: $5k MRR (15 hrs/week) or $8k (full-time). A miss means concentrating on the best channel and cutting modules nobody uses. |
| Decision at month 24 | At or above the target: keep compounding, and choose the second app (documents or e-invoicing, if the mandates are verified and merchants ask) as the next step. Below $3k: stop adding modules, and run it as a small profitable app, or sell it. |
| Exit | $8k MRR (~15 hrs/week) or $12k (full-time), profitable |
Revenue path (illustrative, not a forecast)
| Month | Paying merchants (~15 hrs/week) | MRR (~15 hrs/week) | Paying merchants (full-time) | MRR (full-time) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 8 | ~$250 | 12 | ~$350 |
| 6 | 35 | ~$1k | 60 | ~$1.8k |
| 12 | 100 | ~$3k | 170 | ~$5k |
| 18 | 170 | ~$5k | 270 | ~$8k |
| 24 | 265 | ~$8k | 400 | ~$12k |
This assumes:
- a blended ARPU of ~$30 after annual discounts;
- 15–20% install-to-paid;
- 4–5% monthly paid churn after month 6;
- installs growing from ~30 to ~120–150 a month once the Built for Shopify badge is held.
If churn runs above 7%, this path doesn't work. Fix the weekly value before chasing installs.
What each MRR level takes
| MRR | Paying merchants at ~$30 | Installs needed over 24 months (at 15–20% to paid, plus ~30% more to replace churned payers) | What has to be true |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1k | ~35 | ~230–300 | The listing ranks in German, and pilots convert |
| $3k | ~100 | ~650–870 | Built for Shopify badge, 25+ reviews |
| $5k | ~170 | ~1,100–1,500 | Churn ≤5%, and a second language market working |
| $10k | ~335 | ~2,200–2,900 | A deadline wave caught early, plus the partner channel |
| $20k | ~670 | ~4,400–5,800 | A second product (or a much larger segment than assumed) |
| $50k | ~1,670 | ~11,000–14,500 | A portfolio of apps (the Mat De Sousa model) |
Budget guardrails (bootstrapped)
- Hosting, email, translation and storage below 5% of revenue. Plus the 2.9% Shopify processing fee.
- Zero paid acquisition. DropCommerce's paid ads and cold email failed (10, R5).
- Paid help only from revenue: a German-speaking contractor at $1k MRR, and part-time support at ~$4k MRR.
- Professional indemnity insurance once MRR passes ~$3k (cost not verified).
- Full-time only: keep 12 months of personal runway at all times. If it falls below 6, drop to ~15 hrs/week rather than add paid growth.