9. Assumptions and Open Inputs
The catalog row gave the idea, the evidence and two wedge options. Team, location, hours per week available, safety background and budget were not supplied. Here's what was assumed, and how the verdict changes if each assumption is wrong.
9.1 Assumptions made
| Input | Assumption used | If actually different… |
|---|---|---|
| Wedge | Alberta COR/SECOR audit evidence, chosen over US OSHA 300/ITA (02) | If research shows an incumbent already maps evidence well and cheaply for small firms, the verdict becomes a plain No. |
| Target customer | Alberta construction employers with 3–100 workers holding or pursuing COR/SECOR, plus the consultants who serve them | Larger employers (100+) mean longer sales cycles and direct competition with SiteDocs, Procore and HammerTech. Odds fall. |
| Founder location | Unknown; possibly outside Canada | In Alberta, or with an Alberta partner: odds rise toward the full-time column. Far outside Mountain Time with no partner: apply the ×0.7 condition penalty. |
| Safety background | None stated | A certified COR auditor or consultant on the team is the single biggest positive change. Without one, multiply odds by ~0.5. |
| Hours per week available | Two plans shown: ~15 hrs/week and full-time | Under ~10 hrs/week, the Oct–Jan season can't be served. Treat as a No. |
| Stage | Idea. No code, no users, no revenue | Any paying pilots change the conversation from idea to evidence. |
| Pricing | SECOR CA$69, Small COR CA$179, Consultant CA$279 + CA$15 per extra client; sprint CA$399 (07) | All unvalidated. If consultants won't pay more than ~CA$10 per client per month, the $20k rung needs ~2x the clients. |
| Exchange rate | CA$1 ≈ US$0.72 | A 10% move in CAD changes USD MRR by 10%. |
| Market size | ~11,000 Alberta holders (verified); COR/SECOR split and construction share unverified | If most holders are SECOR (≤10 workers), the blended price falls and more accounts are needed. |
| Audit calendar | ACSA's published Oct 2026 – Jan 2027 dates apply to most target customers | If many holders run on anniversary dates, the season is spread out. That's easier on the founder but removes the single urgent sales window. |
9.2 Inputs that would change the verdict most (please supply)
- Who on the team has passed, run or audited a COR or SECOR, and how many Alberta consultants or employers can you call this month?
- Hours per week available and your time zone.
- Any existing relationship with ACSA or another certifying partner.
- Budget and runway, including whether you can pay an auditor advisor (~CA$500–1,000 a month, analyst estimate) from month 1.
- Any trade background (construction, oil and gas services) that would help on site.
- Whether you'd consider BC or Manitoba first if Alberta's incumbents are too strong.
9.3 Definitions used throughout
- COR / SECOR: Alberta's Certificate of Recognition and Small Employer Certificate of Recognition (≤10 employees). Both are trademarks.
- Certifying partner: the body that issues certificates and sets the audit process for its members (for example, ACSA for construction).
- PIR: WCB-Alberta's Partnerships in Injury Reduction refund program.
- Account: one paying employer or one paying consultant (who may cover 15–25 companies).
- Tier A / Tier B: as in 01.
- Churn benchmark: SMB B2B SaaS commonly loses ~3–5% of customers a month (unverified in this pass; see TradeLedger's research for the Recurly figure).