9. Assumptions and Open Inputs
The catalog entry gave the concept, evidence, pricing band, channels, risks and two possible starting segments. It didn't give team, trade access, hours per week available, geography or budget. Here's what was assumed, and how the verdict changes if each assumption is wrong.
9.1 Assumptions made
| Input | Assumption used | If actually different… |
|---|---|---|
| Target customer | Private trade fleets (landscaping first) with 3–25 DOT-regulated units, mostly non-CDL, US interstate | If you have deep access to small trucking carriers (for example, you ran a 10-truck fleet), the established for-hire segment (3–20 trucks, 3+ years old) scores close to the recommended version. Stay away from new and single-truck authorities either way. |
| Access to trade owners | Not stated. Assumed you can reach 10 owners in 30 days through a contact | Without it, multiply the recommended odds by ~0.5. |
| Compliance expertise | None on the team. A paid advisor is assumed. | A former DOT auditor or safety consultant as co-founder is the single biggest positive change. It reduces liability and makes the content credible. |
| Hours per week available | Two plans: ~15 hrs/week and full-time | Below ~10 hrs/week, the discovery and catch-up work can't be done in US business hours. The odds fall below the ~15 hrs/week column. |
| Geography | United States, federal interstate rules first, then 3 states | Canada has its own National Safety Code and provincial rules. It's a different product. |
| Pricing | ~$85 blended (Crew $59, Company $119, Fleet $199), catch-up $149, MVRs at cost + $2 | If owners only pay ~$35, $10k MRR needs ~285 firms, and the ~15 hrs/week plan can't get there in 24 months. |
| Stage | Idea. No code, no users, no revenue | Any paying firms, even 5, would outweigh most of this document. |
| Funding | None | E&O insurance and the advisor are the two fixed costs to budget before launch (~$4–10k in year 1; unverified). |
| Census figures | Active status, MCS-150 updated since 30 Sept 2024, self-reported power units and drivers | Self-reported fleet sizes are often stale. Real counts could be 10–30% different either way. |
| "Inactive" means failed | Treated as a signal of churn, not a pure failure rate | Some records are deactivated for missing MCS-150 updates or re-registration. The gap between for-hire and private carriers is the reliable finding. |
9.2 Inputs that would change the verdict most (please supply)
- Your access to trade owners. Who do you know who runs a landscaping, tree, HVAC or plumbing firm with trucks and trailers, or who insures them?
- Hours per week available, and how many of them fall in US business hours.
- Any DOT compliance experience on the team, or an advisor you already know.
- Evidence of owner awareness: have you seen trade owners get audited, stopped at roadside, or asked by an insurer for driver files?
- Budget for E&O insurance and the advisor in year 1.
- Your preference between the two fallback segments: established small trucking carriers (Pivot A), or selling through insurance agents and safety consultants (Pivot B).
9.3 Definitions used throughout
- Private fleet / private carrier: a business that carries its own property (tools, plants, materials) and is not also authorised for hire.
- Trade fleet: a private fleet whose main business is a trade (landscaping, lawn, tree, HVAC, plumbing, electrical, roofing, pool).
- DOT-regulated vehicle: in interstate commerce, GVWR or GCWR of 10,001 lb or more (§ 390.5). Intrastate thresholds vary by state.
- DQ file: the driver qualification file in § 391.51.
- Monthly logo churn: the share of paying firms that cancel in a month. Healthy SMB B2B: 3–5%. Target here: ≤2%.
- MRR: subscription revenue only. MVR pass-through fees and one-off catch-up fees are excluded.