Target: a ladder, not one number.
- Full-time plan: aim for $18–20k MRR, profitable, by month 24. The odds are ~14% at $20k.
- ~15 hrs/week plan: aim for $8–10k MRR. The odds are ~14% at $10k and ~27% at $5k.
- Both assume ≥80% gross margin and ≥70% month-3 retention.
Rule: nothing in a later phase starts until the current phase's gate is hit. Gates and pivot rules are in WHAT-TO-DO-AND-AVOID.md. Days 1–90 are detailed in 08-90-day-plan.md. Months are shown full-time first, then ~15 hrs/week in brackets.
Phase 1: Prove the pain (Months 0–3 [0–5]) → Gates G1, G2
| Track | Work |
|---|
| Access | Sign the trade advisor (retainer or 0.5–2% equity) in the first 30 days. |
| Customers | 20 owner interviews [10]. Concierge service in Airtable for 5–10 paying shops. |
| Product | Offline PWA v1: sites, asset register with QR/barcode, due-date engine, offline inspection, per-site PDF, CSV import, Stripe invoice links. |
| Distribution | NFPA 10 due-date calculator, 10 SEO pages, recorded demo, NAFED directory outreach. |
| Pricing | Solo $69, Shop $179, Crew $329. Pilot shops get founding pricing locked for 12 months. |
| Ops | Tech E&O and cyber insurance, terms that make the contractor responsible, daily backups. |
| Exit | 12 shops paying on the app [6], zero lost inspections |
Phase 2: Make it repeatable (Months 4–6 [6–9]) → Gate G3
| Track | Work |
|---|
| Product | Photo/PDF import with capped AI extraction and a human check. Deficiency → quote → repair job. Monthly "revenue found" email. |
| Distribution | 20 more SEO pages (one per city portal your shops use). Referral offer: 1 month free per paid referral. First 3 case studies, each opening with a dollar figure. |
| Onboarding | Import wizard plus a group onboarding call, so founder time per new shop is ≤3 hours. |
| Metrics | Signed-to-live days, founder hours per shop, revenue found per shop, monthly logo churn. |
| Exit | $2k MRR [$1k], churn ≤2%/month, ≥30% of trials from search or referral |
Phase 3: Reports and retention (Months 7–12 [10–15]) → Gate G4
| Track | Work |
|---|
| Product | Compliance Engine and 2–3 city-portal export packs. Customer read-only portal with certificates ("Powered by TradeLedger"). QuickBooks Online sync. Van stock and loaner tracking. Tech certification expiry reminders. |
| Distribution | Outreach to distributors that supply small shops (a referral revenue share, to test). One NAFED regional event, as an attendee, not a booth. |
| Ops | Help center, churn-reason survey, part-time data-entry contractor for migrations from ~30 shops on. |
| Exit | $6k MRR [$3k], ≥50% of shops on annual plans, founder time ≤1 hour per new shop |
Phase 4: Expand revenue per shop (Months 13–24 [16–24]) → Gate G5
| Track | Work |
|---|
| Product | Module 2: kitchen hood suppression (semi-annual cycles) and emergency lighting, on the same asset model, as a paid add-on (~$49/mo, price to test). Module 3: backflow testing (assembly register, annual test, gauge calibration, portal packs) if ≥20% of shops ask for it. |
| Distribution | Double down on the single best channel from months 1–12. Consider Canada if US growth flattens. Check local standards first. |
| Team | First hire: part-time onboarding and support, not another engineer. |
| Checkpoint | Month 18: $11k MRR [$5k]. Missing it means putting everything into the best channel and module 2. |
| Decision at month 24 | At the plan's MRR and profitable: keep running it as a profitable business. Above $10k: consider a second country or a second trade (backflow as a standalone product). Below $3k: stop, or pivot within compliance records for trades. |
| Exit | $18–20k MRR [$8–10k], profitable |
Revenue path (illustrative, not a forecast)
| Month | Shops (full-time) | Add-on modules | MRR (full-time) | Shops (~15 hrs/week) | MRR (~15 hrs/week) |
|---|
| 3 | 12 | 0 | ~$1.5k | 3 (concierge) | ~$300 |
| 6 | 15 | 0 | ~$2.2k | 7 | ~$1k |
| 12 | 40 | 0 | ~$6k | 20 | ~$3k |
| 18 | 65 | 15 | ~$10.5k | 33 | ~$5k |
| 24 | 115 | 35 | ~$19k | 55 | ~$9k |
Assumptions behind the path:
- blended ~$150 per shop after annual discounts, plus hood/lighting add-ons at ~$49;
- monthly logo churn ≤1.5% after month 6;
- ≥50% of trials from search or referral by month 12;
- founder time per new shop falls from ~5 hours to ≤1 hour by month 12.
If founder time per shop stays above 3 hours, the ~15 hrs/week path stalls around $3–5k. Fix onboarding before chasing growth.
Budget guardrails (bootstrapped)
- Hosting, SMS, PDF, storage and AI extraction below 8% of revenue. Cap AI import per migration.
- Zero paid ads before the month-6 checkpoint. After it, only channels with CAC payback under 3 months.
- Fixed monthly spend before revenue: under $300 (hosting, domain, email, insurance, advisor retainer, prorated).
- Keep 6+ months of personal runway at all times if full-time. If it falls below 3 months, move to the ~15 hrs/week plan rather than stopping.