9. Assumptions and Open Inputs
This idea came from the 30 Sept 2026 micro-SaaS research run, not from a founder's brief. So target customer, price, hours per week available, geography, stage, team and traction were never supplied. Here's what I assumed, and how the verdict changes if each assumption is wrong.
9.1 Assumptions made
| Input | Assumption used | If actually different… |
|---|---|---|
| Target customer | "Jira admins and PMOs" as described. The recommended version narrows it to admins and engineering or compliance leads at audited companies. | If you already know audited Jira teams, or have run audit evidence yourself, the recommended odds hold or rise. If your network is PMOs, the roll-up version is the natural fit, and its odds are lower (see 01). |
| Pricing | None stated. Recommended: $1.50 / $0.75 / $0.30 / $0.15 per user per month by tier, ~$80 blended per paying site | Much lower pricing (e.g. $0.50/user for the first 100) roughly doubles the sites needed at every rung, and pushes each rung's odds down by about a third. |
| Hours per week available | Two cases: ~15 hrs/week and full-time | Under ~10 hrs/week, a Forge app with support and a monthly release is hard to sustain. Treat the 15 hrs/week column as an upper bound. |
| Technical skill | You can build and support a Forge app yourself (TypeScript, React, Jira REST APIs) | If the build is outsourced, add a quarter to the timeline and multiply the odds by ~0.65. Every rate-limit or platform change then costs a contractor invoice. |
| Geography | Irrelevant to selling. The Marketplace sells globally in USD. | Your location matters only for tax, company set-up and support hours. Buyers are mostly US and European. Not verified. |
| Stage | Idea. No code, no users, no revenue. | Any existing Forge app or Marketplace listing, even an unrelated one, shortens the timeline and helps ranking (vendor history and reviews). |
| Team | One person | A second person with audit or GRC experience is the biggest positive change. |
| Traction | None | 3 paid evidence packs change this from "idea" to "evidence". |
| Funding | None, none needed | Doesn't change the advice. |
| Competitor figures | Install counts and ratings from Marketplace pages on 30 Sept 2026. Prices unverified except eazyBI. | Re-check prices, trial lengths and editions of SaaSJet, OBSS, Bloompeak, votazz and Broken Build before setting yours. |
| Churn | 2–4% monthly logo churn for paying sites | Not verified. If post-audit churn is higher than 4%, the $10k+ rungs fall by about half. |
| Trial-to-paid | ~25–30% | Not verified. Measure it from month 4. |
9.2 Inputs that would change the verdict most (please supply)
- Hours per week available, and for how many months.
- Have you shipped a Forge or Connect app before? Any existing Marketplace vendor account?
- Have you prepared audit evidence (SOC 2, ISO 27001, SOX) from Jira yourself, or do you know people who have?
- Who can you reach this month: how many Jira admins or compliance leads at audited companies?
- Whether Vanta, Drata or similar platforms already produce change-control exceptions from Jira for their customers. If they do, the wedge narrows.
- Name check: is "StatusLens" free as a trademark, domain and Marketplace listing name?
- Your goal for the app: a profitable small business you keep, or an asset to sell in 2–3 years. It changes how much you invest in reviews, security certifications and documentation.
9.3 Definitions used throughout
- Paying site: one Jira Cloud site with a paid subscription to the app. Marketplace pricing is based on the total Jira users on that site.
- Blended price: average monthly revenue per paying site, after annual discounts (annual = 10× monthly).
- Tier A: $1M ARR within 36 months, ≥70% gross margin, ≥50% month-12 logo retention.
- Tier B: $20k+ MRR within 24 months, profitable, ≥80% gross margin, ≥70% month-3 retention.
- Forge app (for revenue share): no Connect modules, OAuth authentication, Forge UI (UI Kit or Custom UI).
- Runs on Atlassian: Atlassian-hosted compute and storage only, matching data residency, no egress except analytics that customers can control.
- All odds in this folder are judgment estimates, not computed statistics.