1. Verdict
Why a ladder instead of one target
This idea is assessed at six MRR levels instead of one fixed number. Marketplace app outcomes are skewed: most new apps earn a few hundred dollars a month, some reach a comfortable figure, and a few become category leaders over many years. A single "$20k MRR" number hides the most useful information: how likely each level is, and what each level costs in time.
The anchor: there is no verified base rate
- No verified base rate exists for bootstrapped B2B micro-SaaS, or for new Atlassian Marketplace apps, reaching a given MRR within 24 months. Atlassian doesn't publish per-app revenue or a distribution of new-app outcomes, and no independent survey was found.
- The consumer-app base rate used elsewhere in this portfolio (RevenueCat: 17.3% of new subscription apps reach $1k/month within 2 years, 4.6% reach $10k) is for mobile consumer apps. It isn't comparable, so it isn't used here.
- No verified recent solo Forge revenue case exists. None was found in this research run.
What the odds are anchored on instead (see research/10):
- Agile Docs, a solo Jira app that rolled estimates up to parent issues, reported $1,285 MRR six months after launch (Dec 2019) and $4,149 MRR in Oct 2020, about 16–18 months after launch (Indie Hackers, reported Nov 2020). This was refuted as a current benchmark because it's six years old and pre-dates Forge, the 2024–26 rate-limit changes and today's crowded category. It's a dated data point only.
- Category install counts (30 Sept 2026): SaaSJet Time in Status 5,322; OBSS Timepiece 4,442; Bloompeak Status Time Reports Free 10.5k; votazz 1,461; Broken Build 919; GTOLA's free app 863. The leaders took years to get there. OBSS describes Timepiece as the oldest app in the category, with over a decade of development.
- Rob Walling's stair-step approach: add-ons in an existing ecosystem are easier to start with than standalone SaaS, because discovery is built in. Walling also notes that ecosystem products usually earn less per customer. Jira apps are an exception on price, because they're billed per user.
Three things push the odds up:
- Buyers are businesses paying per user, so ~$80 a month per site is plausible. $10k MRR needs only ~125 paying sites.
- The Marketplace delivers buyers who are already searching, and Atlassian handles billing, invoicing and refunds for "Paid via Atlassian" apps.
- 0% revenue share up to $1M lifetime and ~98% gross margin. The app is profitable from the first customer.
Three things push them down:
- The category is crowded, and a free app leads it by installs.
- Incumbents are Gold and Platinum Marketplace Partners with 200+ reviews, SOC 2 and Cloud Fortified status.
- Atlassian controls ranking, rate limits and platform pricing, and can ship native features.
Odds at each MRR level (reached by month 24)
| MRR at month 24 | Base rate | As described (4-part reporting suite for admins and PMOs) | Time-in-status app only | Roll-ups and PMO portfolio only | Generic "issue history export" only | Recommended, ~15 hrs/week | Recommended, full-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1k | No verified base rate | 35% | 30% | 30% | 35% | 55% | 70% |
| $3k | No verified base rate | 20% | 16% | 17% | 20% | 38% | 52% |
| $5k | No verified base rate | 13% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 28% | 42% |
| $10k | No verified base rate | 6% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 15% | 26% |
| $20k | No verified base rate | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 14% |
| $50k | No verified base rate | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% |
The alternative columns assume full-time effort. At ~15 hrs/week, multiply them by about 0.7.
Recommended means a Forge-only change-control evidence app for audited Jira teams, as set out in WHAT-TO-DO-AND-AVOID.md, with the 3 conditions met:
- you can build and support a Forge app yourself;
- you can reach 15 audited Jira teams before building;
- you hold a steady release and support cadence for 24 months.
If any one condition is missing, multiply the recommended odds by about 0.65.
These are judgment estimates anchored to the dated data points above, not computed statistics.
Notes on the alternatives:
- Time-in-status only enters the most crowded search results on the Marketplace, against a free leader with 10.5k installs and two paid leaders with 4,400–5,300 installs each.
- Roll-ups and PMO portfolio compete with Appfire's JXL (4.7k installs), Tempo's Structure, BI tools such as eazyBI, and Jira's own Plans on Premium. It's also a longer, more political sale.
- Generic issue-history export competes directly with SaaSJet's Issue History (3,060 installs, Runs on Atlassian, SOC 2, HIPAA and FDA Part 11 claims).
- As described is all four at once. Breadth makes the listing unclear and the build four times longer.
How to read the ladder
- $1k–3k is a realistic outcome. It takes 13–38 paying sites. Design partners plus modest Marketplace search traffic can deliver that.
- $5k–10k needs the listing to rank for audit and change-management searches, and a second paid line (approval-time and SLA evidence for service desks).
- $20k and above needs ~250 paying sites. That's near-leader scale in a narrow niche, or a second app on the same data.
- The odds fall fastest between $5k and $10k. That's where a single niche listing usually runs out of search demand.
Portfolio definitions (for comparison with other ideas)
| Tier | Definition | Recommended, ~15 hrs/week | Recommended, full-time | As described |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier A (venture) | $1M ARR within 36 months, ≥70% gross margin, ≥50% month-12 logo retention | <1% | ~1% | <0.5% |
| Tier B (profitable business) | $20k+ MRR within 24 months, profitable, ≥80% gross margin, ≥70% month-3 retention | ~6% | ~13% | ~2% |
Tier B sits just below the $20k rung. Margin isn't the issue (it's ~98%). Month-3 retention is: some audit buyers cancel once the audit is done.
How this compares with the other ideas in this portfolio: higher than BhashaCity and AstroCompanion at every rung, because each customer is a business paying ~$80 a month. Lower than CreatorDesk and TripDesk at $20k, because those are assessed as direct-sale B2B tools with less crowded categories. Its advantages are unusual: the lowest operating cost, no payment handling, and built-in distribution.
Fundable in current form?
No. A single Jira app in a crowded category is a small, profitable business, not a venture. See 06-fundability.md. It doesn't need funding: the build is small, there are no infrastructure costs to speak of, and Atlassian collects the money.
One-paragraph verdict
The platform economics are excellent and the timing is good. Atlassian is pushing every vendor onto Forge, Connect loses support on 31 January 2027, and Forge apps keep 100% of revenue up to $1M. But the idea as written is four crowded categories under one name, and the biggest one is led by a free app. A new, generic reporting app would sit on page two of Marketplace search and earn a few hundred dollars a month. The version worth building is narrow: turn Jira's history into the change-control evidence auditors ask for, flag the exceptions, and give audited teams a monthly reason to keep paying. On those terms, $1k–3k MRR is a reasonable expectation, $5k–10k is possible with a listing that ranks, and $20k is a stretch that probably needs a second app on the same data.