9. Assumptions and Open Inputs
The idea gave a concept, a list of candidate trades and catalog evidence. It did not give the team, hours per week available, trade access, geography, budget or traction. Here's what was assumed, and how the verdict changes if each assumption is wrong.
9.1 Assumptions made
| Input | Assumption used | If actually different… |
|---|---|---|
| Trade | Driving schools, chosen from five candidates (02) | If you have deep access to another trade (you ran a swim school, say), that access can outweigh the scores. Re-run the scoring with it. |
| Trade access | None stated | An owner or senior instructor on the team moves the odds up to the recommended figures. Without one, multiply them by ~0.6. |
| Hours per week available | Two plans: ~15 hrs/week and full-time | Under 10 hrs/week: the $5k+ rungs drop by about half, because calls and migrations can't happen. |
| Geography | US, Ohio first | Canada or the UK: different rules, different incumbents, and this assessment doesn't cover them. |
| Stage | Idea. No code, users or revenue. | Any paying schools would outweigh most of this document. |
| Team | 1–2 people, at least one technical | A non-technical founder needs a developer who can do security properly. That's not optional here. |
| Funding | Bootstrapped | Existing capital doesn't change the product advice. It changes how long you can be wrong. |
| Number of Ohio schools | "A few hundred", unverified | Under 250 multi-instructor schools means the second state must start sooner (by month 6). |
| Ohio record and certificate rules | Schools keep hour records and issue a certificate, and are inspected. The exact rules and the DETS role are unverified. | If DETS already records every drive for the school, the hour record is less of a differentiator. Lead with booking and payments instead. |
| Seasonality | Summer peak, winter quiet, unverified | If demand is even across the year, churn risk falls and the off-season plan matters less. |
| Competitor prices | Mostly from Zutobi's comparison page (July 2026) | If DanubeNet is much cheaper than $6–10 per student, flat pricing is harder to sell. |
| Churn | ≤1.5% monthly achievable with records inside the product | At 4%, the $10k rung falls to roughly half the stated odds. |
9.2 Inputs that would change the verdict most (please supply)
- Your driving-school access: who you know, and whether they'd advise or join.
- Hours per week available, and how many fall in US business hours.
- Ohio school count, from an export of the DETS search.
- What 15 owners say about booking, hour records, no-shows and what they pay today.
- Budget and runway, including the cost of a security review and cyber insurance.
- Whether you'd attend DSAA (19–22 Oct 2026) or a state association meeting.
- Why this trade: founder motivation predicts whether you'll stay narrow.
9.3 Definitions used throughout
- Success: the MRR ladder by month 24, profitable at each level. Tier A and Tier B as in ../../README.md.
- Driving school (target): an independent, state-licensed school teaching teen (and under-21) driver education, with 2–15 instructors.
- Drive: one behind-the-wheel lesson with a licensed instructor.
- Hour record: the per-student log of classroom and driving hours the state requires.
- Paid churn benchmarks: SMB B2B SaaS 3–5% a month. Target for this product ≤1.5%.
- MRR: monthly recurring subscription revenue, excluding any payment platform fees.