9. Assumptions and Open Inputs
Date: 30 Sept 2026 · Back to WHAT-TO-DO-AND-AVOID.md
The starting idea named a category (equipment-rental software for one narrow sub-vertical) and five candidate sub-verticals. It gave no team, geography, hours per week available, stage or traction. Here's what was assumed, and how the verdict changes if each assumption is wrong.
9.1 Assumptions made
| Input | Assumption used | If actually different… |
|---|---|---|
| Sub-vertical | Small US DME/HME suppliers that rent serialised equipment, chosen from five (02) | If you have deep access to party, bike, camera or tool rental, access doesn't fix a market where incumbents are rated 4.6–4.9 at $19–59. Access matters most where the gap exists. Still No. |
| DME access | Not known. The odds assume a DME insider. | Without one, multiply by ~0.4. The answer becomes a plain No. |
| Geography | United States (Medicare accreditation is the hook) | Other countries have different device rules and buyers. Not assessed. |
| Renting suppliers | 3,000–5,000 of the 8,285 Medicare-enrolled medical supply companies rent serialised equipment | If it's under 1,500, the $10k rung needs ~5% of the market, and the odds halve. |
| Module gap | A meaningful share of small suppliers doesn't use its billing suite's asset or delivery module | The most important unknown. If most small suppliers already use NikoHealth or Bonafide modules happily, the answer is No. |
| Price | ~$150/month blended ($99 / $199 / $399) | If owners won't pay above $49, the $10k rung needs ~200 suppliers, which is out of reach. |
| Hours | Two plans: ~15 hrs/week, or full-time | The ~15 hrs/week plan tops out around $3–5k MRR, because each supplier needs a call and an import. |
| Stage | Idea. No code, no users, no revenue. | Paying pilots would outweigh most of this document. |
| Competitor figures | Latka estimates and review-site ratings as of 30 Sept 2026 | Latka is unreliable (the catalog flags it). Treat every revenue figure as rough size only. |
| Competitive bidding | Next round by 1 Jan 2028. Whether it covers rental items your buyers depend on is unknown. | If it includes oxygen, beds and wheelchairs nationally, consolidation speeds up and churn rises. |
9.2 Inputs that would change the verdict most (please supply)
- Do you have a DME insider? Name the person and their role. This is the go/no-go input.
- Hours per week available, and for how long.
- Five supplier conversations: what they use for billing, whether they use its asset module, how they log cleaning today, and when their next survey is.
- Any existing relationships with accreditation consultants or a state HME association.
- Your HIPAA experience, or a budget for a compliance tool and insurance.
- Why this idea over the stronger catalog ideas? If the answer is "I know DME", keep going. If not, pick another.
9.3 Definitions used throughout
- DME/HME supplier: a Medicare-enrolled supplier of durable or home medical equipment. In this document it means one that rents serialised equipment (beds, wheelchairs, concentrators, CPAP, lifts).
- Survey: an accreditation survey by an accreditor such as ACHC, The Joint Commission, CHAP, BOC or HQAA.
- PHI: protected health information under HIPAA.
- MRR ladder and Tier A/B: as defined in ../../README.md.