9. Assumptions and Open Inputs
The idea came as one catalog row (E1 in the 30 Sept 2026 micro-SaaS idea catalog) with no founder details. Team, hours per week available, industry access, budget and geography were not supplied. Here's what I assumed, and how the verdict changes if each assumption is wrong.
9.1 Assumptions made
| Input | Assumption used | If actually different… |
|---|---|---|
| Specialty | Not chosen. Five candidates scored, multifamily lender PCA picked (02). | If you are, or work with, a Florida insurance-inspection firm with 50+ inspectors, a narrow internal tool might still pay. As a product for sale, the verdict stays No. |
| Industry access | None stated. Treated as the main condition. | A founder who has written 50+ GSE PCAs is the single biggest positive change: roughly ×3 on every recommended figure compared with no access (the ~0.35 multiplier in reverse). |
| Hours per week available | Two plans: ~15 hrs/week and full-time. | Under ~10 hrs/week, the demos and template setup won't fit. Wait until more hours are available. |
| Geography | US only | The formats are US agency formats. Other countries mean a different product. |
| Stage | Idea. No code, no users, no revenue. | Any firm already using a prototype on live reports outweighs most of this document. |
| Pricing | ~$400 blended per firm per month | If principals balk above $200, the $20k rung needs ~100 firms and becomes near-impossible. Test the price in the first 15 calls. |
| Number of addressable firms | 150–300 mid-size firms (unverified) | Under 150: plan the second report family from month 6. Over 400: odds above $10k rise by a third. |
| PCA fee per report | Low thousands of dollars (unverified) | If fees are under $1,000 for most GSE PCAs, price tolerance drops and the blended price falls toward $250. |
| Competitor and market figures | Vendor pages and search results up to 30 Sept 2026 | Re-verify Layer, Kykloud, HappyCo and due-diligence platforms before pitching. |
9.2 Inputs that would change the verdict most (please supply)
- Your PCA or inspection background, or the named person who would be your industry advisor.
- Hours per week available, and for how long.
- A counted list of firms writing Fannie, Freddie or HUD reports that you can reach.
- Three principals' answers to: reports per month, hours per report, and bounce-backs per month.
- Budget and runway for 12 months of hosting, E&O insurance and an advisor fee.
- Any existing relationships with lenders, reviewers or due-diligence platforms.
9.3 Unverified items that most affect the odds
- The number of US firms writing GSE multifamily PCAs, and how many have 2–30 assessors.
- Typical PCA fees and hours per report (sets price tolerance and the money pitch).
- The exact 2026 Form 4099 series contents, including whether an Excel or data-file deliverable is mandated.
- Whether any due-diligence ordering platform already offers consultant report writing.
- HUD capital needs assessment rules, which decide how fast a second report family can be added.
9.4 Definitions used throughout
- MRR ladder: chance of reaching each MRR level by month 24, profitable at that level. All odds are judgment estimates.
- Tier A / Tier B: as defined in the portfolio README.
- PCA: property condition assessment, a physical review of a commercial or multifamily property with repair and replacement-cost opinions, usually under ASTM E2018.
- GSE: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
- Firm: a consulting company that writes PCAs, with one or more assessors.
- Bounce-back: a lender reviewer sending a report back for revision.