1. Verdict
Definition of "success"
This portfolio uses an MRR ladder: the chance of reaching $1k, $3k, $5k, $10k, $20k and $50k MRR by month 24, profitable at that level. Two fixed tiers are kept for comparison:
- Tier A (venture): $1M ARR within 36 months, ≥70% gross margin, ≥50% month-12 logo retention.
- Tier B (profitable business): $20k+ MRR (≈ $250k ARR) within 24 months, profitable, ≥80% gross margin, ≥70% month-3 retention.
Probability by version
All figures are judgment estimates, not computed statistics. "15h" means ~15 hrs/week available. "FT" means full-time. The recommended version assumes the founder conditions in WHAT-TO-DO-AND-AVOID.md.
| Version | $1k (15h / FT) | $5k (15h / FT) | $10k (15h / FT) | $20k (15h / FT) | Tier B (15h / FT) | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| As described: home-inspection report writer with scheduling, agreements, payments | 15% | 3% | 1% | <0.5% | <0.5% | Head to head with Spectora (12,000+ inspectors), HomeGauge, ISN, HIP, Palmtech. Nothing to switch for. |
| Florida 4-point and wind mitigation only | 25% / 35% | 5% / 9% | 2% / 4% | <1% / 1% | <1% / 1% | Real volume and a mandate, but the forms are in Spectora's base plan and sold by 8+ tools, some as one-time $395–540 packages. Inspectors earn $75–200 per inspection. |
| Sewer / pool / mold report add-on | 15% / 20% | 2% / 4% | <1% / 1% | <0.5% | <0.5% | No mandated form. Spectora already handles sewer as an add-on. |
| Recommended: multifamily lender PCA report writer | 40% / 55% | 17% / 30% | 8% / 16% | 3% / 7% | 2% / 6% | Mandated formats, high fees per report, no residential incumbent, but a small credentialed buyer group. |
| Recommended, without PCA-industry access | 14% / 19% | 6% / 10% | 3% / 6% | 1% / 2% | <1% / 2% | Multiply by ~0.35. The buyer won't take a stranger's call. |
A single figure means the same at both time commitments: more hours don't fix a missing gap in the market.
Tier A for the recommended version: <0.5% at ~15 hrs/week, ~1% full-time. One report family doesn't reach $1M ARR in 36 months.
Base rate: no verified base rate. Nobody publishes the share of new bootstrapped B2B vertical-software products reaching a given MRR in 24 months. See WHAT-TO-DO-AND-AVOID.md.
Fundable in current form?
No.
As described, the pitch is "a smaller Spectora", in a market where Spectora is PE-backed and at ~$30M ARR. No investor funds that. The PCA version is a good small business with a ceiling of roughly $15–30k MRR from one report family. That's too small for venture money, and it doesn't need any. See 06.
One-paragraph verdict
The catalog is right that inspection software can make a bootstrapped fortune: Spectora proves it. It's wrong that a solo founder can find an open corner of the residential market. Spectora's base plan already includes the Florida wind-mitigation and 4-point forms, the catalog's strongest candidate, and a crowd of cheap desktop tools sells them too. Sewer, pool and mold have no mandated form to anchor on. The one corner where the thesis still works is commercial: firms writing property condition assessments for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac multifamily loans. Their formats are mandated and change every year or two, their reports bill in the thousands, and no Spectora-style tool is built for them. But the buyer group is small, credentialed and relationship-driven, and its biggest members build their own systems. With a PCA engineer on the team and honest hours, this is a $5–12k MRR business in 24 months, with a small chance of $20k. Without that access, don't start.