9. Assumptions and Open Inputs
Date: 30 Sept 2026
The brief gave catalog idea E8 (church and faith-organisation management plus giving), its evidence (Pushpay/CCB, Tithe.ly, ChurchDesk, Planning Center), a price range ($50–300 a month plus a margin on giving), the risks, and a suggested wedge (UK Gift Aid claim automation). It didn't give team, hours per week, church connections, budget or location. Here's what I assumed, and how the verdict changes if each assumption is wrong.
9.1 Assumptions made
| Input | Assumption used | If actually different… |
|---|---|---|
| Wedge | Chosen here: a success-fee Gift Aid bureau for one independent UK church network (01) | If you run or advise a denominational Gift Aid bureau, a white-label engine for that bureau is better: one customer, thousands of churches. |
| Network access | You can reach one network of 30+ independent churches through a trusted person | Without it, don't start. Odds fall to roughly the "Gift Aid finder" column in 01 (~3% for $10k, full-time). |
| Independent networks lack a Gift Aid service | Assumed from finding schemes only for the Church of England, 8 dioceses and the Methodist Church | Unverified. The biggest open question. If your target network already has a central scheme, pick another network or sell to the scheme. |
| Gift Aid per church | ~£7,000 a year (Church of England ~£90M a year ÷ an assumed ~12,000 parishes) | At £3,000 the fee is ~£13 a month, and the customer counts in the ladder more than double. At £15,000 (a tithing church), they halve. |
| Fee | 5% +VAT on regular claims, 10% on backlog (£100 minimum), £60 a year minimum, capped at £1,000 a year | At 3%, customer counts rise by two thirds. Above 7%, expect pushback given Swiftaid's 5%. |
| Exchange rate | £1 ≈ $1.34 (not verified) | ±10% moves every customer count in the ladder by about ±10%. |
| Hours per week available | Two columns: ~15 hrs/week and full-time | Under 10 hrs/week: roughly halve the 15 hrs/week odds above $1k. Review time grows with every church. |
| Stage | Idea. No code, no churches, no revenue | Any church that has filed a claim through you changes this from opinion to evidence. |
| Team | 1 technical founder | A founder who is a church treasurer, Gift Aid secretary or charity accountant inside a network is the single biggest improvement to the odds. |
| Budget | ~£3–5k for year 1: adviser review, professional indemnity insurance, ICO fee, hosting, document-reading costs | Without the adviser and insurance, don't file for anyone but a pilot church. |
| Churn | ~1% a month per church after month 6 (judgment, no benchmark) | Losing a whole network is the bigger risk. See 05. |
| HMRC process | Software recognition takes weeks, not months. Agent authorisation per church works through the ChV1 route. | Both unverified. If recognition takes 6+ months, stay on the free spreadsheet upload longer. It still works for up to 1,000 donations per sheet. |
| Latka figures (Tithe.ly $18.7M, ChurchDesk $5.5M) | Rough size only | The catalog warns that Latka can be badly wrong. The verdict doesn't depend on them. |
9.2 Inputs that would change the verdict most (please supply)
- Which church network you can reach, how many churches it has, and who would introduce you.
- Whether that network has any central Gift Aid arrangement today.
- Hours per week available, and for how long.
- Your link to church finance: treasurer, Gift Aid secretary, trustee, charity accountant, or none.
- Rough Gift Aid figures from 3 churches in the network: how much they claimed last year, and when they last claimed.
- Budget for the adviser, insurance and year-1 tools.
- What outcome you'd be happy with at month 24. If $2–5k MRR with low operations is a good result, this idea can fit. If only $20k+ counts, pick a different idea from the portfolio.
9.3 Definitions used throughout
- Tier A: $1M ARR within 36 months, ≥70% gross margin, ≥50% month-12 logo retention.
- Tier B: $20k+ MRR (≈ $250k ARR) within 24 months, profitable, ≥80% gross margin, ≥70% month-3 retention.
- MRR here: fees from the month's filed claims that HMRC has repaid, on a monthly claim cadence. One-off backlog fees are reported separately and are not MRR.
- Network: a group of 30+ churches with a shared leader or finance function (a denomination's UK arm, a fellowship or an association).
- Gift Aid: 25p per £1 donated by a UK taxpayer with a valid declaration. GASDS: a top-up on cash and contactless donations of £30 or less, up to £8,000 of donations a year per charity.