5. Pre-Mortem: It's September 2028 and DocChase Is Dead
Three most likely causes of death, ranked by probability. They compound: #1 makes #2 worse.
Cause #1: "It's a feature" (probability ~45% of failure cases)
What happened. DocChase launched in February 2027 with a sharp MTD chaser. Content Snare shipped its 20 MTD templates and a per-client "MTD plan" in spring 2027. Glasscubes kept MTD Assist free for firms. Karbon and TaxDome added MTD quarterly templates to their bundled client requests. Xero added a "request records from client" button to Tax Manager in Xero HQ. Each practice DocChase pitched said some version of "we already have something that does this". The practices that did buy were the smallest ones on the Starter plan, and the average stayed under £45.
Early warning signs
- At day 60, concierge practices won't re-book, and they name a tool they already own.
- More than 30% of lost deals cite Content Snare, Glasscubes or a suite by name.
- Xero, Content Snare or Karbon announces an MTD client-request feature. Watch Xerocon London and Content Snare's blog.
- Blended price per practice stays under £50 after month 9.
Fixable? Partly. You can't stop them shipping. You can pick ground they're slow to take:
- Chase only what's missing by reading each client's books (none of them does this today);
- the client's phone experience (login-free WhatsApp, "nothing new" in one tap);
- per-client pricing that stays cheap at 300+ MTD clients.
If none of those three wins deals by month 6, the wedge is gone. Stop, or sell the customer list to a suite.
Cause #2: The calendar and the hours beat you (probability ~35%)
What happened. The founder had limited hours per week. The concierge quarter in November went well, but v1 wasn't ready for the 7 Feb 2027 quarter. January was lost to the practices' Self Assessment peak. v1 launched in late March 2027, after most practices had already chosen a tool for the £30k wave. The next real buying window was June–July, and then Feb–Apr 2028. By month 18, DocChase had 35 practices. Every quarter brought a support spike in the 3 weeks before the deadline, and it squeezed out selling.
Early warning signs
- v1 isn't running a real quarter by the 7 Feb 2027 deadline.
- Fewer than 8 practices pre-paid by 29 Dec 2026.
- Support takes more than 5 hours a week in deadline weeks at under $2k MRR.
- Sales calls get pushed to "after the deadline" three times in a row.
Fixable? Yes, if planned from day 1. Sell in the windows (Oct–Nov, Feb–Apr, Jun–Jul), build in the gaps, and make support self-serve before the second deadline. Pre-sell annual plans in December for the February quarter.
Cause #3: Trust or policy shock (probability ~20%)
What happened. One of these:
- (a) A misdirected WhatsApp link let a stranger see a client's bank statement. The practice reported it to the ICO, and the story spread in UK accounting communities. Sales stopped for six months.
- (b) HMRC softened MTD: a delay of the £20k phase, a longer penalty holiday, or a simpler route for landlords. The urgency behind quarterly chasing fell, and practices dropped "nice to have" tools.
- (c) Meta changed WhatsApp Business rules or raised UK utility prices, and the core channel became expensive or restricted.
Early warning signs
- Any file access you can't explain in the audit log.
- HMRC or Treasury consultations on MTD thresholds or penalties. Watch the Budget.
- WhatsApp template rejections, or a rate change at a quarterly price update (1 Jan, 1 Apr, 1 Jul, 1 Oct).
Fixable?
- (a) Yes, by design: links tied to one client, a PIN on first open, short expiry, files forwarded and deleted, and an audit log.
- (b) Partly: the chase exists without MTD. Year-end Self Assessment and bookkeeping clients still need chasing, but the price and urgency fall.
- (c) Yes: keep email and SMS as equal channels, and never depend on one.
Honourable mentions (less likely, still real)
- Clients digitise themselves. Xero Simple (~£7/mo, unverified), Sage's free app and bank feeds mean more clients keep their own records. The chase shrinks to "please categorise". The "chase only what's missing" feature is the hedge.
- Founder-market fit gap. Without a UK accountant as design partner, you'll build what seems logical. (Team background wasn't provided. See 09.)
- Price war with a free tool. If Glasscubes stays free for firms and gets good, the Starter plan dies. The Practice and Firm plans must carry the business.