Date: 30 Sept 2026 · Back to WHAT-TO-DO-AND-AVOID.md
Target: the MRR ladder by month 24. Realistic top rungs: $10k MRR full-time (~67 suppliers) or $4k MRR at ~15 hrs/week (~27 suppliers).
Rule: nothing in a later phase starts until the current phase's gate is hit. Gates and the pivot rule are in WHAT-TO-DO-AND-AVOID.md. The detail for days 1–90 is in 08-90-day-plan.md.
Precondition: a DME insider is signed. Without one, don't enter Phase 1.
Phase 1: Prove the pain (Months 0–3) → Gates day 30 and day 90
| Track | Work |
|---|
| Customers | 20 discovery calls, 3 consultant calls. Concierge setup for 5–8 paying pilots. |
| Product | Serial register, state machine, offline driver app, PM due list, survey export. |
| Security | BAA-capable hosting, BAAs, encryption, access logs, written risk assessment, cyber insurance quote. |
| Pricing | Founding price $99/month, locked for 12 months. |
| Exit | 8 paying, ≥75% of deliveries logged in the app |
Phase 2: Make it repeatable (Months 4–6) → Month-6 gate
| Track | Work |
|---|
| Product | Recall matching (manual notice entry first), clean/dirty warehouse zones, rental-month counter (information only). |
| Distribution | Consultant view. 3 consultants approached with a referral fee. 10 more survey-prep pages. One state association talk. |
| Pricing | Move new customers to $99 / $199 / $399 with annual plans. |
| Exit | $1.5k MRR (~10 suppliers), ≥90% month-3 retention, 1+ referring consultant |
Phase 3: Channel and depth (Months 7–12) → Month-12 gate
| Track | Work |
|---|
| Product | Multi-location roll-up, read-only CSV import from the most common billing suite among customers, PM templates for the top 20 rental items. |
| Distribution | 3 referring consultants. HME trade-media articles. A second state association. |
| Ops | Help center, recorded onboarding, a self-serve serial import wizard (so each new customer costs under 2 hours of your time). |
| Exit | $3.5k MRR (~24 suppliers), logo churn ≤2%/mo |
Phase 4: Scale what works (Months 13–24) → Month-18 and month-24 gates
| Track | Work |
|---|
| Product | Automated recall matching. Survey-pack variants per accreditor. A connector to one billing suite only if 30%+ of customers use it. |
| Distribution | Double down on the single best channel (expected: consultants). Prepare for competitive bidding by selling annual plans before Q4 2027. |
| Team | Full-time path: a part-time onboarding and support contractor from about $6k MRR. ~15 hrs/week path: no hires. Cap onboarding at 3 suppliers a month. |
| Checkpoint | Month 18: $6k MRR full-time (~40 suppliers) / $3k at ~15 hrs/week. Missing it means concentrating on the best channel only. |
| Decision at month 24 | $10k+ full-time or $4k+ at ~15 hrs/week: run it as a profitable small business, or offer it to a suite vendor or consultancy. Under $2k: stop, or sell the code and customer list. |
| Exit | $10k MRR full-time / $4k MRR at ~15 hrs/week, profitable |
Revenue path (illustrative, full-time, not a forecast)
| Month | Suppliers | Blended price | MRR |
|---|
| 3 | 8 | $99 (founding) | ~$0.8k |
| 6 | 12 | ~$125 | ~$1.5k |
| 12 | 26 | ~$135 | ~$3.5k |
| 18 | 42 | ~$145 | ~$6.1k |
| 24 | 67 | ~$150 | ~$10k |
At ~15 hrs/week, divide the supplier counts by about 2.5 after month 6 (month 24: ~27 suppliers, ~$4k MRR). This path assumes ≤2% monthly logo churn and at least one consultant channel working by month 9. If churn runs above 3% (consolidation, bidding), this path doesn't work. Fix retention and annual-plan mix before chasing new logos.
Budget guardrails (bootstrapped)
- Hosting, SMS, e-signature and storage below 8% of revenue. Fixed compliance and insurance costs budgeted separately (estimate $4–7k a year, unverified).
- Zero paid acquisition before the month-6 gate. After it, only consultant referral fees and association sponsorships with a clear cost per supplier.
- Keep 12 months of personal runway on the full-time path. The ~15 hrs/week path must not need a hire to stay on track.