Target: an MRR ladder by month 24. Realistic: $3k–5k at ~15 hrs/week, $10k–14k full-time. Stretch: $20k (Tier B), profitable, ≥80% gross margin, ≥70% month-3 retention.
Rule: nothing in a later phase starts until the current phase's gate is hit. Gates and pivot rules are in WHAT-TO-DO-AND-AVOID.md. The detail for days 1–90 is in 08-90-day-plan.md.
The calendar that shapes everything: the FDA compliance date is 20 July 2028 (month 22). The FY2028 appropriations fight (autumn 2027) is the moment a second delay could happen. FDA engages industry quarterly on flexibilities (research/10, F1–F3).
Phase 1: Prove the pain (Months 0–3, Oct–Dec 2026) → Gates day 30, day 60, day 90
| Track | Work |
|---|
| Customers | 40 distributor calls, 10 consultant calls, 5–10 paid readiness sprints (~$1,000). |
| Product | Thin v1: QuickBooks Online read, receiving capture, lots on invoice lines, invoice PDF, FDA spreadsheet, monthly mock recall. |
| Distribution | Free Food Traceability List checker, spreadsheet template, plan template. 10 search pages on the FDA's exact terms. |
| Team | Paid advisor from the trade, signed within 30 days. |
| Legal | E&O insurance bound. Terms: the customer owns records and plan; no compliance claims. |
| Exit | 5 paid sprints by day 60; 2 annual commitments by day 90 |
Phase 2: Make it repeatable (Months 4–9, Jan–Jun 2027) → Gate month 6
| Track | Work |
|---|
| Product | Supplier CSV and ReposiTrak import. Missing-lot alerts and supplier chase letters. Data health score. |
| Distribution | 2–3 consultant partners on 20% revenue share. One state produce association newsletter or webinar. Founder guides after each FDA engagement. |
| Pricing | Starter $149, Standard $249, Pro $449; annual = 10 months. Founding price locked to July 2028. |
| Metrics | Mock recall time and customer data sends per account. |
| Exit (month 6) | $1k MRR (15 hrs/week) or $1.5k (full-time), ≥70% on annual, 2+ consultant partners |
Phase 3: Consultant channel and flexibilities (Months 10–15, Jul–Dec 2027) → Gates month 12, autumn 2027
| Track | Work |
|---|
| Product | Consultant console (many clients, white-label reports). Broken-case and inferred-lot tools within 2 weeks of FDA guidance. Customer data portal (Standard plan). |
| Distribution | 5 consultant partners. One regional produce event. Case studies with mock recall before/after. |
| Watch | FY2028 appropriations. If a second delay passes: freeze new spending, move all accounts to annual, and decide to keep as a small business or stop. |
| Ops | Help centre, onboarding emails, cancellation-reason survey. |
| Exit (month 12) | $2.5k MRR (15 hrs/week) or $4k (full-time), ≥30% organic, median mock recall under 1 hour |
Phase 4: The pre-deadline rush (Months 16–22, Jan–Jul 2028) → Gates month 18, month 22
| Track | Work |
|---|
| Product | Only fixes that shorten onboarding. Self-serve Starter signup. Bulk import of historic invoices. |
| Distribution | Put all effort into the single best channel from months 1–15 (expected: consultants). |
| Team | Full-time path: part-time onboarding help in US hours. ~15 hrs/week path: cap new accounts at what you can onboard well. |
| Exit (month 18) | $5k MRR (15 hrs/week) or $9k (full-time) |
| Exit (month 22, 20 July 2028) | ≥80% of accounts produce a clean FDA spreadsheet in under 1 hour |
Phase 5: After the deadline (Months 23–24, Aug–Sept 2028) → Gate month 24
| Track | Work |
|---|
| Product | A second listed-food category (seafood, shell eggs or soft cheese) only if produce renewals hold. |
| Decision | At $5k+ (15 hrs/week) or $12k+ (full-time) and profitable: keep going. $2–5k: run it as a small profitable business. Below $1.5k: stop, or sell the customer base to an ERP maker or consultant firm. |
Revenue path (illustrative, not a forecast)
| Month | Accounts (~15 hrs/week) | MRR (~15 hrs/week) | Accounts (full-time) | MRR (full-time) |
|---|
| 3 (Dec 2026) | 2 | ~$0.3k (+ sprint fees) | 3 | ~$0.5k (+ sprint fees) |
| 6 (Mar 2027) | 5 | ~$1k | 8 | ~$1.5k |
| 12 (Sept 2027) | 12 | ~$2.5k | 20 | ~$4k |
| 18 (Mar 2028) | 25 | ~$5k | 45 | ~$9k |
| 22 (Jul 2028) | 28 | ~$5.5k | 60 | ~$12k |
| 24 (Sept 2028) | 28 | ~$5.5k | 65 | ~$13k |
This assumes blended ARPU of ~$200 after annual discounts, ≥70% on annual plans, monthly logo churn under 2%, and no second federal delay. Most growth lands in months 12–22. If the date moves again, cut the month-18 onward figures by roughly half. If churn runs above 4%, this path doesn't work; fix retention before selling more.
Budget guardrails (bootstrapped)
- Hosting, OCR, AI, email and QuickBooks API costs below 8% of revenue. Cap AI extraction per account per month.
- E&O insurance as a fixed cost from month 3 (unverified, roughly $1.5–3k a year).
- Zero paid ads before month 9. After that, only channels with CAC payback under 4 months.
- Consultant revenue share (20% for 12 months) counts as acquisition cost, not margin.
- Keep 12 months of runway at all times. If it falls below 6 months, cut to the core flow and the best channel.