9. Assumptions and Open Inputs
The catalog row gave the idea, its evidence and two candidate wedges. Team, hours per week available, location, trade access, budget and stage were not given. Here's what was assumed, and how the verdict changes if each assumption is wrong.
9.1 Assumptions made
| Input | Assumption used | If actually different… |
|---|---|---|
| Stage | Idea. No code, no users, no revenue. | Any paying distributors, even 3, change the conversation from idea to evidence. |
| Team | 1 person, technical, no stated food-industry background | A founder or partner from produce distribution, or a food-safety consultant with distributor clients, roughly doubles the recommended odds (condition 1). |
| Hours per week available | Two columns: ~15 hrs/week, and full-time | Under ~10 hrs/week, the pre-deadline rush (2027–28) can't be served. Treat the ~15 hrs/week column as the ceiling. |
| Location and hours | Can take calls in US business hours, including early mornings | Without it, multiply the recommended odds by ~0.7. |
| Geography | US only | The rule is US federal law. The UK kitchen wedge was scored and rejected (02). |
| Target buyer | Produce distributors with 5–50 staff on QuickBooks Online | If most small distributors already run a produce ERP, the wedge shrinks sharply. This is the most important unknown (10.4). |
| Pricing | $149 / $249 / $449 a month, blended ~$200 after annual discounts; ~$1,000 readiness sprint | Below ~$100 blended, $20k needs ~200+ accounts and Tier B falls under 2% full-time. |
| Compliance date | Holds at 20 July 2028 | A second delay moves most demand past month 24. Cut the recommended odds by ~half at $5k and above. |
| FDA flexibilities | Arrive as guidance in 2027 and help broken-case handling | If they're very generous, part of the pain disappears (see 05, cause #2). |
| Receiving data | A meaningful share of cases carry scannable GS1-128 lot barcodes; the rest come on paper | If most lots are handwritten or missing, capture is a photo-and-AI job with more manual checking, and onboarding takes longer. |
| Funding | None raised; bootstrapped | Doesn't change the product advice. It changes how long you can wait for the 2028 rush. |
| Competitor figures | Public pages and search snippets as of 30 Sept 2026 | Re-check FoodReady, ReposiTrak, Qoblex and Digit hands-on before pricing publicly. |
9.2 Inputs that would change the verdict most (please supply)
- Your hours per week available, and your time zone.
- Trade access. Have you, a partner or a possible advisor worked at a produce or foodservice distributor, or as a food-safety consultant to one?
- Any existing relationships with state produce associations, consultants or distributors.
- Budget and runway for 24 months, including E&O insurance.
- Whether you'd consider a different food category (seafood, shell eggs, soft cheese) if produce distributors turn out to be mostly on ERPs.
- Whether a kitchen product is a hard requirement. If it is, the honest answer is no; see 01.
9.3 Definitions used throughout
- Success: the MRR ladder by month 24, plus Tier A and Tier B as defined in ../../README.md.
- Food Traceability List (FTL): the FDA's list of foods covered by the rule.
- Traceability lot code (TLC): the lot identifier the rule requires to be kept and passed along.
- Critical tracking events (CTEs) and key data elements (KDEs): the events (for a distributor, receiving and shipping) and the data that must be kept for each.
- Small distributor: 5–50 staff, one or two warehouses.
- Paid churn benchmarks: healthy SMB B2B SaaS ~1–2% a month on annual plans; typical SMB SaaS ~3–5% a month.
- All odds are judgment estimates, not computed statistics.