Target: an MRR ladder, not one number. Realistic month-24 targets: $10–12k MRR full-time and $4–5k MRR at ~15 hrs/week, profitable, ≥80% gross margin, ≥70% month-3 retention. $20k is the stretch rung (WHAT-TO-DO-AND-AVOID.md).
Rule: nothing in a later phase starts until the current phase's gate is hit. Gates and pivot rules are in WHAT-TO-DO-AND-AVOID.md. The detail for days 1–90 is in 08-90-day-plan.md.
Phase 1: Prove the pain (Months 0–3) → Gates day 30, day 90
| Track | Work |
|---|
| Access | Sign the PCA advisor or co-founder. Count the addressable firms. |
| Customers | 20 interviews (10 at ~15 hrs/week). Hands-on service for 3 paying firms (2 at ~15 hrs/week). |
| Product | Tablet PWA: offline structured capture, useful-life and cost tables, reserve schedule, Fannie 4099 output, pre-submission check. |
| Distribution | Free GSE useful-life lookup, 5 SEO pages on form names, first form-change email. |
| Pricing | Solo $149, Firm $449, Firm Plus $899. Pilot firms get founding pricing locked for 12 months. |
| Exit | 5 firms (3 at ~15 hrs/week) running all GSE PCAs in the app for a month |
Phase 2: Make it repeatable (Months 4–6) → Gate month 6
| Track | Work |
|---|
| Product | Freddie Mac 1105 output. Firm cost-library import wizard. Unit sampling tracker. |
| Distribution | Monthly form-change email. 10 more SEO pages. ASTM E50 attendance. Ask every pilot for one referral. |
| Ops | Template-import wizard, recorded demo, help center. Target ≤10 days to go live per firm. |
| Metrics | Per-firm dashboard: hours per report, bounce-backs, reports per assessor. |
| Exit | $2k MRR full-time / $1k at ~15 hrs/week, zero firms lost |
Phase 3: Widen the report family (Months 7–12) → Gate month 12
| Track | Work |
|---|
| Product | Plain ASTM E2018 output (bank and CMBS lenders). Senior-engineer review workflow. AI-drafted boilerplate, marked for engineer review. |
| Research | Verify HUD capital needs assessment rules and demand among existing firms. |
| Distribution | Two named case studies with hours saved. One conference talk (full-time only). |
| Ops | Churn-reason survey. E&O and cyber insurance in place. |
| Exit | $5k MRR full-time / $2.5k at ~15 hrs/week, ≥50% on annual |
Phase 4: Second report family and scale what works (Months 13–24) → Gates months 18 and 24
| Track | Work |
|---|
| Product | HUD capital needs assessment output, only if ≥5 existing firms ask for it. Otherwise condo reserve studies (pivot B), if verified. Ordering-platform integration only if one has an API and ≥5 customers use it. |
| Distribution | Double down on the single best channel from months 1–12. |
| Team | Full-time: a part-time onboarding and template person from ~$8k MRR. ~15 hrs/week: no hires; automate onboarding instead. |
| Checkpoint | Month 18: $8k MRR full-time / $4k at ~15 hrs/week. Missing it means concentrating on the best channel and the second report family. |
| Decision at month 24 | Above $10k: keep running it profitably. Consider a sale if a platform or larger inspection-software group asks. Below $2k: stop, or sell templates and customers to a larger firm. |
| Exit | $10–12k MRR full-time / $4–5k at ~15 hrs/week, profitable |
Revenue path (illustrative, not a forecast)
| Month | Firms (full-time) | MRR (full-time) | Firms (~15 hrs/week) | MRR (~15 hrs/week) |
|---|
| 3 | 3 | ~$900 (pilot pricing) | 2 | ~$600 |
| 6 | 5 | ~$2k | 3 | ~$1k |
| 12 | 13 | ~$5k | 6 | ~$2.5k |
| 18 | 20 | ~$8k | 10 | ~$4k |
| 24 | 28 | ~$11k | 12 | ~$4.8k |
This assumes a blended ~$400 per firm after annual discounts, monthly logo churn of ≤1.5% after month 6, and new firms arriving at ~1–2 a month (full-time) or ~0.5–1 a month (~15 hrs/week). The $20k rung needs ~50 firms, which means ~3 new firms a month from month 12 and a second report family. That's why its odds are 3% / 7%.
Budget guardrails (bootstrapped)
- Hosting, storage, document generation and capped AI below 8% of revenue.
- Advisor fee or equity agreed in writing before the first pilot.
- E&O and cyber insurance before firm #5.
- Zero paid acquisition before month 6. After it, only channels with payback under 3 months.
- Keep 12 months of runway at all times. If it falls below 6 months, cut to Fannie 4099 output and the single best channel.