9. Assumptions and Open Inputs

The idea came with a concept, four features and two possible buyers. Team, location, languages, hours per week, pricing, stage and traction were not supplied. Here's what I assumed, and how the verdict changes if each assumption is wrong.

9.1 Assumptions made

Input	Assumption used	If actually different…
Target customer	Agencies or Shopify/WooCommerce stores, as written	Already agency-only: you start from the recommended column. Store-only: see the "store app only" column in 01 (~2% at $10k).
Pricing	None stated. Recommended: €99 / €249 / €499 per agency per month, €79 per direct site. Blended ~$200/month per agency account.	Below €120 average per account, the $10k level needs 80+ agencies and the odds drop by about a third.
Exchange rate	€1 = $1.10	A 10% move changes the customer counts by about 10%.
Location and language	Unknown. Possibly outside the EU. No confirmed EU-language fluency.	A native speaker of the launch market's language is the single biggest positive change. Without one, condition 2 in WHAT-TO-DO-AND-AVOID.md is likely missed (odds × ~0.6).
Hours per week available	Two cases: ~15 hrs/week and full-time	Under ~8 hrs/week, agency sales stall. Treat $1k as the realistic ceiling.
Stage	Idea. No code, no users, no revenue.	Any paying agencies, even 3, change the conversation from "idea" to "evidence".
Team	1 person, technical, no stated accessibility background	An IAAP-certified founder or partner raises every odd in the ladder and is what investors would ask about first.
Standard	WCAG 2.1 AA via EN 301 549, with WCAG 2.2 coming later	If the harmonised standard moves to WCAG 2.2 soon, rules and templates need an update. Manageable on axe-core. Timing not verified.
Enforcement pace	Slow: notices, complaints and court orders through 2027, few public fines	A visible fine against a mid-size retailer in Germany, France or the Netherlands would raise the $5k–20k odds by roughly half. A higher French court confirming the €250M reading from the Auchan case would lower French odds.
Transitional period	Sites and apps are in scope now. Vendor sources cite a transitional period to 28 June 2030 for some services (Article 32 of the Directive).	Not verified against the Directive text (EUR-Lex couldn't be read in this run). If buyers widely read it as covering websites, urgency drops further. Get a lawyer's view.
Competitor pricing	Vendor pages and Vendr as of 30 Sept 2026	Silktide, Level Access and Deque don't publish prices.
Insurance cost	Professional indemnity is available at a price a small SaaS can pay	Not verified. A high premium or an exclusion for "compliance" work changes the profit check.

9.2 Inputs that would change the verdict most (please supply)

Hours per week available, and for how long you can sustain them.
Where you're based, and which EU languages you can sell and write in.
Accessibility background: yours, or someone you can bring in as an advisor or partner.
Agency access: how many agency owners in one EU market you could call this month.
Budget and runway, including for a lawyer review (claims, terms, statement templates) and insurance.
Any existing product or code (a scanner, a WordPress plugin, a Shopify app).
Why this idea: interest in accessibility itself predicts whether you'll hold the honest line when fear marketing would sell faster.

9.3 Definitions used throughout

Tier A: $1M ARR within 36 months, ≥70% gross margin, ≥50% month-12 logo retention.
Tier B: $20k+ MRR within 24 months, profitable, ≥80% gross margin, ≥70% month-3 retention.
MRR ladder: $1k, $3k, $5k, $10k, $20k, $50k by month 24, while profitable at that level.
Microenterprise (EAA services): fewer than 10 staff, and annual turnover or balance sheet total ≤€2M (BFSG §2 no. 17).
Agency account: one agency paying one plan, covering many client sites.
Paid churn benchmark (assumption): healthy agency SaaS 1–3% a month. One-off compliance buyers 6–10% a month.
ARR: annualised recurring subscription revenue, excluding referral fees and one-off services.